15/06/2015- Last week’s markets and economic data expected in the week ahead

June 15, 2015

Investment graph

Economic data released last week was broadly positive. The highlight proved to be an upward revision to Japanese first quarter GDP growth, to an annualised rate of 3.9% from an initial estimate of 2.4%, as business investment (up 11% year-on-year) was far stronger than initially estimated. Elsewhere, the UK trade deficit narrowed substantially in April, reaching its lowest level for 13 months, whilst US retail sales rose steadily in May, boosted by strong car sales (up 8% year-on-year). On the negative side, whilst China’s trade surplus rose to a near-record level in May, this was largely due to imports falling by a huge 17.9% year-on-year.

Stock markets posted a muted week of performance. The FTSE 100 index fell by 0.29% over the course of the week; the S&P 500 index rose by 0.06%; the Dax index was flat; whilst the Nikkei index fell by 0.40%. In sovereign bond markets, the UK 10-year Gilt yield is currently at 2.10%, the US 10-year Treasury yield is at 2.35% and the German 10-year Bund yield is at 0.84%.

Economic data due for release this week is fairly limited; inflation data on both sides of the Atlantic could prove to be the highlights.

US – Industrial production

UK – Inflation
Germany – ZEW economic sentiment survey

UK – Unemployment

UK – Retail sales
US – Inflation

UK – Public borrowing