01/06/2015- Last week’s markets and economic data expected in the week ahead
Economic data released last week was broadly positive. Japan provided a number of positive data points, the highlights being retail sales rising by 5% year-on-year in April, and unemployment falling to 3.3% in April, an 18-year low. In the US, consumer confidence rose in May, but the US also provided the major surprise of the week. The second estimate of first quarter GDP growth was revised down to an annualised rate of -0.7%, from the first estimate of +0.2%, as the initial estimate (which was well below expectations of +1.0%) overestimated capital investment by companies and underestimated a rise in imports.
Stock markets posted a broadly negative week. The FTSE 100 index fell by 0.67% over the course of the week; the S&P 500 index fell by 0.88%; the Dax index fell by 3.40%; whilst the Nikkei index bucked the trend in rising by 1.78%. In sovereign bond markets, yields have retreated a little; the UK 10-year Gilt yield is currently at 1.92%, the US 10-year Treasury yield is at 2.11% and the German 10-year Bund yield is at 0.49%.
Economic data due for release this week is much heavier than last. A host of purchasing managers’ indices covering manufacturing and services sectors are released, together with inflation and the second estimate of first quarter GDP growth in the Eurozone.
UK – Manufacturing PMI
Eurozone – Manufacturing PMI
US – ISM Manufacturing index
China – Manufacturing PMI
Eurozone – Inflation
UK – Services PMI
Eurozone – Services PMI
Eurozone – Unemployment
US – ISM Non-manufacturing index
China – Services PMI
Eurozone – Q1 GDP growth (2nd est.)
US – Non-farm payrolls